Investment class assignment (behavioral bias) Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Investment class (behavioral bias) - Assignment Example In most of these studies, researchers have been critical in finding out whether the biases are intentional or unintentional and whether or not forecast bias take place to serve any good to forecasters and estimator. In the current paper, an existing model proposed by Knill, Minnick and Nejadmalayeri (2011, p 13) is examined with a new touch of behavioral bias to find out how behavioral bias such as overconfidence can be incorporated into the framework outlined by the researchers. Furthermore, the effects of experience and information asymmetry shall be analysed to find their impact on such forecast bias that take place. The existing model The existing model or framework proposed by Knill, Minnick and Nejadmalayeri (2011, p. 87) is one that can best be described as integrated as it makes use of a number of components and aspects of general forecasting such as public information and private assessment. The model also considers common and idiosyncratic components of earnings forecast wh ere there is the use of previously disclosed information. This means that the model is built on the ideologies of Bayesians since there is the dependence on existing forecasts as a means of guaranteeing positive deviations to purchase private signals from firms (Knill, Minnick and Nejadmalayeri, 2011, p. 4). For analysts who make use of this framework or model therefore, there are avenues of selecting several factors and characteristic phenomena in the assessment process, all in a bid to coming out with a rational forecast bias. While some of these avenues may be directed at public information, others are directed at private information. Again, while some of the avenues tilt towards common components of earnings, others tilt towards idiosyncratic components of earnings; all in a bid to ensuring biases, even if they arise would give raise to a predetermined objective of the forecaster. How Behavioral bias can be incorporated into the model Already, it has been said that the existing model or framework is an integrated model. This means that there are several aspects of theoretical and methodological forecasting that have been put together to make its use effective (Nutt, Easterwood and Easterwood, 1999, p. 45). Indeed, this general basis of the model gives it practical reasons why there could be major additions and incorporations into it. For example, it is proposed that behavioral bias can easily be fit into the framework to make it even more effective. In its, behavioral bias may be defined as that kind or type of bias that is founded on the basis of experience and personal connections and rhetoric (Mest and Plummer, 2003, p. 108). As against the original model where analysts forecast is based on uncertainty, building behavioral bias such as overconfidence would demand some appreciable levels of certainty. Such levels of certainty would not come about to suggest that analysts would certainly get the results they anticipate or desire but that analysts would ex press certainty based on a previous experience that worked for a similar trend of earnings forecast. Indeed, as irrationality cannot be totally avoided, so would it be irrational to assume that exactly the same factors would prevail for a previous experi

Project Management as the Application of Knowledge Essay - 2

Project Management as the Application of Knowledge - Essay Example The construction industry in the Gulf has witnessed a colossal leap in the past decade. This is rather paradoxical in the context of the global economic slowdown, which negatively influenced the real estate sector in most parts of the world. In particular, the construction industry in the United Arab Emirates has bounced back on to the fast – track, rapidly taking on massive projects towards development of tourism, housing, industrial and commercial facilities, education and healthcare amenities, transportation as well as expansion of ports and airports. The construction sector has been a key source in driving growth for the nation’s economy and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 9.5 per cent during 2012 - 2016. What you write here is the good context for the study – place this in your part 1,m this area is for the lit review itself This trend has been possible largely due to the affluence of the local Arab community, wealthy expatriat es as well as favorable Government policies. The United Arab Emirates is witnessing huge investments from both, public and private enterprises in the construction sector, focussing on the development of infrastructure for hospitality, retail, real estate and the healthcare industry.   Interestingly, Dubai is recognized to hold the ‘highest per square kilometre’ of construction activity in the world (Faridi& El-Sayegh, 2006)! Yet, it is observed that there are recurring problems of time and cost overruns in the UAE’s construction industry. This is a major cause for concern, prompting a thorough understanding of the current scenario and the proposal of solutions to mitigate these issues in the construction industry. ‘Project Management’ is defined as the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to the project activities, in order to meet project requirements in an effective and timely manner. Project management typically includes identi fication of requirements, establishment of clear and achievable objectives, balancing the demands of quality, scope, time, cost and importantly, adapting specifications to meet the expectations of the various stakeholders. The application of ‘Project Management’ to the construction industry as a ‘scientific approach’ to mitigate time and cost overruns has been detailed by various researchers. There is a popular belief that â€Å"time is money† and any delay is sure to have a significant impact on the costs incurred. The interplay of contractors, consultants, supervisors and owners must be managed diligently by an effective manager, utilising project management techniques. The following will serve as a research proposal for a project that is concentric upon the role of ‘project management’ in mitigating the cost and time overruns and construction projects in the United Arab Emirates.